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I never expected to see 300 people die in a tornado outbreak ever again.  I figured that even if we DID have another outbreak like 1974, we would be able to warn everybody on TV and that would protect most families.  The strong tornado that hit Nappanee a few years ago wipe out several neighborhoods, but nobody died because most got the warnings and they knew to take cover.  Unfortunately, there were several factors that did not keep people protected during this latest huge outbreak in the southeast.

First of all, it's been a very active April because of a very strong flow of air, called the jet stream, that has been slamming into the west coast and then buckling and producing storms in the middle of the country.  This jet stream is extra strong for this time of the year because of the La Nina, a cold pool of water in the Pacific Ocean.  While the La Nina is weakening, it has still been enough to help increase the speed of the winds at the jet stream level.  By the way, the Palm Sunday 1965 tornado outbreak and the "Super" outbreak of April 3rd, 1974 both came after a winter La Nina that was weakening, so this same thing has happened in the past.  The strong jet stream allows the top of thunderstorms to act like a chimney, sucking the warm, humid, air upward, which just increases the power of the thunderstorm, and therefore the tornado.

Secondly, because of the strong winds in the jet stream we had multiple EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes...these are monster tornadoes, the strongest kind.  Most tornadoes are not this strong, thank goodness, so we see things like trees and power lines toppled, or part of a roof off, or even the top floor of a building.  These monster tornadoes basically "level" everything right to the ground.

This leads me to reason number 3, the lack of basements.  In this part of the country, because of a high water level in the ground, they typically do not build basements due to the likelihood of flooding.  So, without a basement, many people had no place to hide.  They needed to get out of the path of these monster tornadoes, which is very hard to do in time.  This definitely caused more deaths that it would have in an area with basements.

So how does this latest outbreak compare to previous tornado outbreaks?  It definitely surpasses the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1965.  That's probably the worst one here in Michiana.  Although Palm Sunday may come close in the number of EF-4 and 5 tornadoes.  As for the grandaddy of them all, the Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974, I think this one will compare.  In fact it may eventually be called Super Outbreak II, although that is not for me to decide.  On April 3, 1974, there were 148 tornadoes across 13 states, which caused 319 deaths.  This latest outbreak, as of 11pm Thursday evening, had 292 dead with an estimated 150 tornadoes across 6 states.  In my opinion, it will be close on the number of deaths.  However, I think it will come up slightly short on the number of tornadoes.  Some of that 150 might be multiple reports of the same tornado, so where they thought there were 2 tornadoes, they'll find only one path.  We'll find out in a few days.  But the number of monster tornadoes will come up short.  In 1974, there were 30 EF-4 and 5 tornadoes during that 24 hour period!!  Incredible!

We have to remember, though, that even if this tornado outbreak across the southeast comes up short of 1974, there are millions of our fellow Americans affected and thousands grieving for their loved ones right now.  It was a very sad day for me as a Meteorologist.  I love the weather, but it's tough to watch when it causes so much havoc and affects so many people.

Mike