| MIKE: Sunspots and Global Cooling?!?WNDU Blog Listing | ||||
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During the past year the sun has become VERY quiet. What that means is that the number of sunspots has dropped to levels that we have not seen in about 100 years. The sun goes through cycles of about 11 years, where the numbers of sunspots spike and then drop off again. Here is a link that will show you what I mean: http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr162/lect/sun/sscycle.html You might notice a couple of things. Notice the low numbers of sunspots in the early 1800's. Do you know what the weather was like during this time frame? It was colder than normal worldwide. And during the 50-60 years before this graph there were almost no sunspots to speak of...that is called the Maunder Minimum, and it corresponds to the Little Ice Age. This would mean global cooling, which is scarier than global warming, although this trend of sunspots would have to continue for 50 years to approach something like that. So being the optimist that I am, I'm not worried yet. :) As I have written in my blog and talked about on TV in the past, I am not convinced than mankind is causing global warming. I'm also not saying that we aren't. I can see evidence on both sides of the issue. I've already pointed out that worldwide temperatures since 2001 have actually dropped, which definitely brings into question the whole global warming scenario because this drop was not forecasted by anybody associated with man-made global warming. But I am confident of one thing...the sun is a MUCH bigger contributor to climate changes than anything mankind is doing! And with that being the case, we may very well be heading into a period of global cooling...perhaps minor, perhaps not. If this quiet period on the sun continues for a while longer, I believe that we won't even be hearing about global warming in 5 to 10 years. I know that sounds outlandish, but a lot of people may have to eat their words in the next decade. There are too many variables here to be sure of anything, but I wanted to bring it to your attention. Here's another site that you might check out that shows a close-up of the latest solar cycle: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/ You'll notice that the forecast is for the number of sunspots to quickly pick up during the summer. However, this is the 3rd revision to that forecast...they have delayed the onset of the increase a couple of times already. I really hope that they are correct this time because like I said above, a long period of low sunspots could lead to dramatically colder weather worldwide. Now I do not know why this has received very little play in the national media. It could be because it is not well understood, and so they just ignore it, or it could be that it suggests the opposite of what they have been harping on for the last 2 decades...global warming. What concerns me is that global cooling could be much more catastrophic than global warming, and that is not something any of us want to see happen. Unfortunately, mankind can do nothing to stop something like that...we would just have to learn to adapt. Maybe we'll get lucky during our lifetimes and everything will balance each other out. The optimist in me is hoping!! There are many other sites that you can check out on this subject. Just do a search for sunspots and climate. Good luck. Mike |
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This is Mike...I just wanted to respond to your well-written comments. There is no doubt that if temperatures only level off during the cool spell that many experts predict over the next 10-15 years, then we could be in trouble down the road. But this cooling was, and is, not predicted by the people leading the charge on global warming...so we'll see how it turns out. My point, overall, is that we are only hearing from one side on this issue from the national media, so we are not hearing the whole debate...and there is debate. There are MANY respected experts who do not even believe that CO2 is a major part of global warming. They believe that the CO2 increases "because" of the warming that is occuring. If CO2 has been dominant over the past few decades, as you contend and which is a possibility, I definitely do not believe that it would overwhelm any changes in the sun. In other words, the sun IS the dominant factor in the earth's climate, and if there are even minor changes in the sun's output, it will dwarf anything that mankind may be doing. That's why I believe that the sunspot theory is relevant.
This is Mike. I wanted to answer respond to the question "what are sunspots?" They are actually dark spots on the surface of the sun, that are much cooler than the surrounding area. They also have intense magetic activity around them. You can find out more information at this site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot I hope this helps.