MIKE: Sunspots and Global Cooling?!?
MIKE: Sunspots and Global Cooling?!?WNDU Blog Listing
MIKE: Sunspots and Global Cooling?!?
Topic Author: Mike Hoffman
Posted: 12:26 AM May 29, 2009
Replies Posted: 13 comments
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During the past year the sun has become VERY quiet.  What that means is that the number of sunspots has dropped to levels that we have not seen in about 100 years.  The sun goes through cycles of about 11 years, where the numbers of sunspots spike and then drop off again.  Here is a link that will show you what I mean:  http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astr162/lect/sun/sscycle.html  You might notice a couple of things.  Notice the low numbers of sunspots in the early 1800's.  Do you know what the weather was like during this time frame?  It was colder than normal worldwide.  And during the 50-60 years before this graph there were almost no sunspots to speak of...that is called the Maunder Minimum, and it corresponds to the Little Ice Age.  This would mean global cooling, which is scarier than global warming, although this trend of sunspots would have to continue for 50 years to approach something like that.  So being the optimist that I am, I'm not worried yet.  :) 

As I have written in my blog and talked about on TV in the past, I am not convinced than mankind is causing global warming.  I'm also not saying that we aren't.  I can see evidence on both sides of the issue.  I've already pointed out that worldwide temperatures since 2001 have actually dropped, which definitely brings into question the whole global warming scenario because this drop was not forecasted by anybody associated with man-made global warming.  But I am confident of one thing...the sun is a MUCH bigger contributor to climate changes than anything mankind is doing!  And with that being the case, we may very well be heading into a period of global cooling...perhaps minor, perhaps not.  If this quiet period on the sun continues for a while longer, I believe that we won't even be hearing about global warming in 5 to 10 years.  I know that sounds outlandish, but a lot of people may have to eat their words in the next decade.  There are too many variables here to be sure of anything, but I wanted to bring it to your attention.

Here's another site that you might check out that shows a close-up of the latest solar cycle:  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/  You'll notice that the forecast is for the number of sunspots to quickly pick up during the summer.  However, this is the 3rd revision to that forecast...they have delayed the onset of the increase a couple of times already.  I really hope that they are correct this time because like I said above, a long period of low sunspots could lead to dramatically colder weather worldwide. 

Now I do not know why this has received very little play in the national media.  It could be because it is not well understood, and so they just ignore it, or it could be that it suggests the opposite of what they have been harping on for the last 2 decades...global warming.  What concerns me is that global cooling could be much more catastrophic than global warming, and that is not something any of us want to see happen.  Unfortunately, mankind can do nothing to stop something like that...we would just have to learn to adapt.  Maybe we'll get lucky during our lifetimes and everything will balance each other out.  The optimist in me is hoping!!

There are many other sites that you can check out on this subject.  Just do a search for sunspots and climate.  Good luck.

Mike

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  • by huck Location: Elkhart on Oct 22, 2009 at 10:20 PM
    I'm convinced Global Warming is the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on the American public. Sure the climate is changing, just as it has done for millions and millions of years. We've had several ice ages and the opposite. The Great Plains were once a swamp where dinosaurs roamed. Indiana was covered by a huge glacier. Climate changes. Why is it any different today? The Warmers are a bunch of socialists whose goal is to residtribute the woorld's wealth and destroy the economies of the U.S. and Europe. It's amazing how many people are following along.
  • by Craig on Jun 8, 2009 at 12:22 PM
    Mike, Given your admirable interest in climate change, you should be reading peer-reviewed research, such as the Journal of Climate. A plethora of papers have explored the sensitivity of the climate system to both greenhouse gases and solar forcing since the Maunder Minimum, concluding that the CO2 forcing has been dominant over the last few decades (e.g. Rind et al. 2004). It should strike you as relevant that, with regard to carbon dioxide leading to the recent period of warming, there are virtually no skeptical papers being published in respected peer reviewed journals. Also: given the moderate La Nina for much of last year, you are also making way too much of 2008 being cooler than recent years. If the climate system hasn't warmed, why is a La Nina year now warmer than any El Nino year from the 1950s,60s,70s, and 80s?

    This is Mike...I just wanted to respond to your well-written comments. There is no doubt that if temperatures only level off during the cool spell that many experts predict over the next 10-15 years, then we could be in trouble down the road. But this cooling was, and is, not predicted by the people leading the charge on global warming...so we'll see how it turns out. My point, overall, is that we are only hearing from one side on this issue from the national media, so we are not hearing the whole debate...and there is debate. There are MANY respected experts who do not even believe that CO2 is a major part of global warming. They believe that the CO2 increases "because" of the warming that is occuring. If CO2 has been dominant over the past few decades, as you contend and which is a possibility, I definitely do not believe that it would overwhelm any changes in the sun. In other words, the sun IS the dominant factor in the earth's climate, and if there are even minor changes in the sun's output, it will dwarf anything that mankind may be doing. That's why I believe that the sunspot theory is relevant.
  • by kmye Location: USA on Jun 6, 2009 at 02:15 AM
    Mr. Hoffman: Thought you might want to know the website below is reprinting your piece (along with a whole lot of others') without credit or acknowledgment to you... lifeofearth.org/2009/06/sunspots-and-global-cooling . html
  • by tina Location: culver on Jun 4, 2009 at 07:17 AM
    WOW someone telling the truth for a change, but be careful, there are a lot of powerful people making big money off the GW nonsense.
  • by james Location: Washington on Jun 2, 2009 at 12:56 AM
    If we are entering another pronounced solar minimum, an appropriate name for it would be the Gore Minimum. This would be a warning to future calamity howlers think twice before purporting something that gets their name linked to the opposite.
  • by Sporty Location: LaPorte on Jun 1, 2009 at 07:54 PM
    It's very simple why it hasn't gotten the attention-it goes against the GW crowd and their incessant harping on the subject. Look,the Sun is 1 million times larger than our earth. A million of our earths could fit inside the thing;that is even hard to imagine the immensity of it. If that Sun even as much as coughs,we get double pneumonia. For those who think we can control our environment,the Sun just laughs at us puny humans.
  • by Dave B. Location: South Bend on Jun 1, 2009 at 02:22 PM
    Great job Mike, for presenting the other side of the story. You and others have stated the facts about global cooling before, but the media keeps on with warning us if we don't change our ways, we'll suffer catastrophe. I agree we should do something about global air pollution that will and is affecting the air we breathe, but I don't believe it is affecting the global warming as much as claimed. Also, I am an amateur radio operator and as such am aware of the effects of sunspots on our atmosphere and the earths magnetic field. The lack of sunspots will have great affect on the distances possibly achieved in radio communication around the world. Another fact to add to the list. Thanks Mike and 73's.
  • by Pam Location: South Bend on May 30, 2009 at 06:39 PM
    Not only are there fewer sun spots, it also seems that the sun is positioned more to the North this summer. I have noticed this in the morning when the sun rises over my pool. Is this due to the tilt of the earth and the eliptical orbit it has or am I mistaken and the sun is where it always is at this time of year?
  • by Thomas Location: Eagan, MN on May 30, 2009 at 04:53 PM
    Wonderful comments, reflects what many believe to be true about the sun being something to consider since it 'is' the source of warming for this planet. Would recommend http://www.solarcycle24.com for those that want to follow this more closely! PS: Not my site but I am an avid watcher of this site!
  • by Jeff Location: North Charleston, SC on May 30, 2009 at 11:04 AM
    Here's another angle - the possible cooling period caused by the suns cycle could mask the effects of global warming for now, but when this period subsides, the effects of global warming could suddenly become VERY noticable. We should not let our guard down. We live in a closed system and we are having a definite effect on it. I am not an alarmist, just a realist. Earth has gone thru changes before, but just not this fast.
  • by Mary Location: South Bend on May 29, 2009 at 06:42 PM
    Thank you for bringing up the topic of global cooling and proividing the links regarding sunspots. I tried telling my husband that mankind may not be contributing to global warming becuase the evidence that the earth is actually warming just doesn't seem to be there. He said I had to be wrong becuase that's all people are talking about in the news, including the Obama administration. I agree that many things done by mankind have a detrimental effect on the environment. I just don't think "warming" is one of them. Your information on global cooling brings to light an issue that just isn't being talked about and probably should be. It's good to educate people about the actual issues we are facing. Thanks again!
  • by J Gary Location: Princeton Junction,NJ on May 29, 2009 at 06:05 PM
    Mike ... Thanks for the posting. At some point the world media will have to begin to look and and try to understand all the variable that effect global temeperatures. The most important, overriding factor is the SUN. If the total energy reaching the earth declines, we will enter a cold period. Unfortunately, AGW believers are "true believers" and science and data are irrevlalant. An award winning site ... Wattsupwiththat ...http://wattsupwiththat.com/ . It reports what the Gorites will not allow to be reported. Keep up the effort ...hard as it may be. Regards Gary Fox
  • by ginger Location: southbend on May 29, 2009 at 06:01 PM
    Mike,What are sunspots?

    This is Mike. I wanted to answer respond to the question "what are sunspots?" They are actually dark spots on the surface of the sun, that are much cooler than the surrounding area. They also have intense magetic activity around them. You can find out more information at this site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot I hope this helps.
  • by Craig Fisher Location: Chicago on May 29, 2009 at 08:50 AM
    Glad to see someone speaking up on this issue. I too am puzzled that the lack of sunspots has received very little press, and yet could have dire and global repercussions. If we are heading into something like the Dalton or the Maunder Minimum, we are in trouble indeed.
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